Analysts are often wrong. After all, their sales estimates are based on research and projections, but ultimately the consumer may pull a 180 and purchase something unexpected. Take for instance, the iPad, which is shattering sales expectations. And compare that with the latest estimates from Forrester.
Sarah Rotman Epps at Forrester is predicting two seemingly contradictory things for the United States. First, that Tablet PC sales (which obviously includes the iPad) are taking off. They represented only 9% of the market 2 years ago but are projected to take 23% of the market by 2015. This market includes all netbooks, notebooks, and desktop computers, and by 2012, tablets will be outselling netbooks.
Second, she surmises that tablet sales will only amount to 3.5 million for all of 2010. Given that Apple has already sold 3 million worldwide in less than 3 months (at least 2 million in the United States), something doesn’t seem to add up.
We won’t be surprised if this forecast is blown out of the water by the end of the summer.